Silver Tsunami - Housing Market I Polaris Advisors

The term "Silver Tsunami" has been buzzing around online discussions lately, leaving many wondering about its potential impact on the 2024 housing market. Let's unravel the concept and explore why experts believe it won't create a massive wave of change.

So, what exactly is the Silver Tsunami? HousingWire recently described it as a colloquialism referring to aging Americans adjusting their living arrangements to suit their changing needs. The idea revolves around the notion that as baby boomers age, a substantial number of them will downsize their homes. Theoretically, if this downsizing were to occur on a large scale, it could flood the market with larger homes for sale, causing a shift in the delicate balance of supply and demand.

However, the big question is whether this scenario will unfold and, if so, when?

Despite the buzz, experts suggest that the Silver Tsunami hasn't made a significant impact and is unlikely to do so in the near future. According to HousingWire, the transformative potential of the Silver Tsunami on the U.S. housing market has not materialized in any meaningful way, and there is little expectation for it to happen anytime soon.

Why won't it have a substantial impact on the 2024 housing market? One key reason is that not all baby boomers are eager to move. Data from the AARP reveals that more than half of surveyed adults aged 65 and above plan to age in place, staying in their current homes rather than opting for a move (refer to the accompanying chart).

Clearly, the Silver Tsunami won't hit all at once. Even among those who do decide to sell or move, the process will be gradual, unfolding over an extended period. Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, emphasizes that demographics are never a tsunami, as the baby boomer generation spans nearly two decades of births, implying that any impact will unfold gradually over a similar timeframe.

While the concept of the Silver Tsunami is intriguing, the 2024 housing market is likely to experience more of a ripple than a tidal wave. Baby boomers, it seems, are taking their time navigating the evolving landscape of housing options.

Interested in discussing the potential impacts of the Silver Tsunami on your housing plans or investments? Feel free to get in touch with Polaris Advisors for personalized insights and guidance.